247Sports: How Michigan Lands the Top 2016 Recruiting Class

National Signing Day is right around the corner and with Michigan making a late push for the top class in 2016, everyone is starting to wonder if Jim Harbaugh will indeed reach that goal. Well, after doing some number crunching and looking at the probability of some of the staff’s top targets, here’s Michigan’s chances of doing so on 247Sports.com.

First, Michigan would need to lose a couple lower rated players via attrition to find the room to fit in more top ranked recruits. Rumor has it that up to 4 current commits could very well likely decommit or grayshirt before NSD which would allow the staff to take 9 more players and hit the 28 commitment mark that has long been mentioned (though Steve Lorenz has heard 27 is the target number).

To make it as realistic as possible, I listed the top ranked players on 247 that Michigan has at least a “Good” chance at on my scale:

  • Excellent – Expected to Commit
  • Very Good – Top Two/Definitely Possible
  • Good – Real Option
  • Decent – Puncher’s Chance
  • Low – Likely Not happening

Here are those players:

  1. DT Rashan Gary
    • 5 star, #1 overall, #1 DT, 1.0000 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Very Good to Excellent
  2. TE Isaac Nauta
    • 5 star, #9 overall, #1 TE, 0.9943 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Good to Very Good
  3. CB David Long
    • 4 star, #65 overall, #7 CB, 0.9655 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Very Good
  4. OT Jean Delance
    • 4 star, #90 overall, #10 OT, 0.9520 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Very Good
  5. WR Dylan Crawford
    • 4 star, #113 overall, #20 WR, 0.9446 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Excellent
  6. LB Dontavious Jackson
    • 4 star, #122 overall, #5 ILB, 0.9413 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Good
  7. ATH Jordan Fuller 
    • 4 star, #130 overall, #8 ATH, 0.9388 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Good
  8. CB Lavert Hill
    • 4 star, #140 overall, #11 CB, 0.9359 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Excellent
  9. DE Connor Murphy
    • 4 star, #240 overall, #16 WDE, 0.9083 rating
      • Michigan’s Chances: Very Good

Final Score: 299.47 (+45.87)

Doing the math, that would not have landed the #1 class in any cycle since 2011 but it would have given them the #2 class in 2014 and 2012, and the #3 class in 2013. All of which would have fallen behind Alabama. With the Tide and other top classes like Ohio State, Florida State and LSU looking not as likely (at this point) to have as strong as a finish as the one above, that score could possibly give Jim Harbaugh the #1 class in the country on 247Sports.

Chances of that Exact Class Happening: Decent

Now, the score could be much higher if I would have added the likes of Mecole Hardman, Caleb Kelly and/or Terrance Davis but from all accounts, all of those players look like long shots at the moment.

Photo Credit: Steve Hockstein | For NJ Advance Media